Fortune's Formula and Bankroll Management

I love to read Card Player, as I'm sure many of you love to do as well. Around March of last year, there was an article by Phil Laak about a book called Fortune's Formula. Phil outlined a basic bankroll management strategy based upon the information that he found in this book, and the information is very useful. Mostly, it is important that you play at a stakes level that:

• minimizes psychological stress because of the amount at stake at any given time
• minimizes the effect of downswings in luck and variance on your bankroll
• maximizes long-term profitability when you have a measurable edge
  

It works out that at any time, when you are a profitable player, that you should be risking no more than 2-5% of your bankroll if you are a decent amateur. Poker is not a game that can be purely dominated in any given instance; it is a game with swings and luck that must be factored into the equation. If Tiger Woods were to bet that he could beat me in a game of golf, he could bet 100% of his bankroll against me, as unless he dies midway through our game, he is a sure winner. No one, not even Phil Ivey, has more than a 10 or 15% edge in a poker game, and thus the stakes at risk must be smaller.

All this adds up to one thing: Get rich slowly, but at the quickest pace that you can without the possibility of gambler's ruin (look this phrase up if you don't know what it means).

Ultimately, I decided to read this book, and I must say, it is the best non-fiction book that I have read. Ever. I read the entire book in a week. I can't remember doing that since high school. It was very thought-provoking and compelling. I recommend that anyone interested in becoming wealthy should definitely read this book, as the ideas apply to nearly any discipline with an edge, whether it be blackjack card counting, the stock market (especially arbitrage opportunities), horse racing, sports betting, etc. Of course, it is very important that you have an edge, as the book describes the Kelly criterion, named after John Kelly formerly of Bell Labs, that explains that when you have no edge, you must not bet.

Rather than explain all of the different convolutions in the book, I'll just say that the subjects range from the mafia to roulette prediction gadgets, and the people range from professors to street thugs. The book is very well tied together, and reads like a novel, while simultaneously teaching some very important life concepts.

I don't recommend books much, but please read this one, no matter who you are:
Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story of the Scientific Betting System That Beat the Casinos and Wall Street, ISBN: 0809045990

Gunning For The Right Opponent

Here's a common scenario: you sit down at a poker table, and you immediately spot an aggressive player. Depending on his/her position relative to yours, you may already be plotting to take the guy down, and you enjoy when he or she takes a beat, even if undeserved. Knowing that is important to make profitable moves against players' differing tendencies, it is understandable that you would want to try to take the guy down. And you're right, sort of.

Poker is about making money, and doing it in as unemotional manner as possible. If you are gunning for a particular opponent, especially one that has a tendency to be very aggressive, you might find yourself ignoring the other players at the table, especially those who have weaknesses that are even more easy to exploit than an aggressive player, e.g. one who draws too much or one who folds too much. Gunning only for an aggressor will put you in a lot of very awkward situations, as you are going to be forced to play big pots against them, and they will often be tricky players who will be forcing a lot of difficult decisions on you. Don't get me wrong, playing big hands against these players will often yield big pots (so long as your hand holds up), but also understand that these players will often get paid off huge when they have a big hand, as no one will believe them. Good, aggressive play is crucial to playing poker. You should be doing it some yourself. Bad, aggressive play is still bad play, but it will require a decent hand or big draw to play correctly against.

Here is some advice for playing against aggressive players:

• in deep stack poker (30+ big blinds), re-raising aggressive players with big hands or big draws is often a good way to get your opponent to fold, if that is what is desired.
• in shorter stack poker, you are going to probably need a real hand, and you should probably let your opponent do the leading to get the pots as large as possible, unless the aggressive player is not only an aggressive raiser but also an aggressive caller, in which case you should do the leading.
• understand that aggressive players will have their antennas up more if you call against them than if you raise, as they are very used to players attempting to raise them. Call with draws; raise with real hands.
• do everything in your power to stay unemotional in situations with these kinds of players, and your decisions will probably be more correct than if hormones are driving them.
  

Understand that everything I just said above has contrarian philosophies that oppose it. Bottom line: adjust to your opponents, rather than emotionally reacting to them.

First In, Last Out

rIn tournament poker, a good maxim to live by is the following:

"First in, last out."

This is definitely a macro poker concept, but it is always easier to be the one putting your opponent to the test by being the first to enter the pot ("first in"), rather than having to make the difficult decision and calling or raising. Tournaments are about scaring your opponents, so mixing up your game by raising with a lot of hands (as long as you can go undetected), especially in later positions (toward the dealer button), will often yield good results. You are forcing your opponent to play back with you, and they might not want to, for fear that you might have a monster. The person who does this best will often be the winner of the tournament ("last out"), or at least do better than a crazy who pushes with any two broadway cards (broadway is an A-K-Q-J-T straight).

Tonight I played poker at Ameristar like I often do on Tuesday nights. My first table was a relatively calm one, where raises were often working uncontested from all different positions. No one was especially good at my first table, so it made me more comfortable doing some raising with some A-crap and 7-9 suited kinds of hands. I was dealt A-A twice tonight and K-K once, and I only got action once on one of the aces. I never had a straight, flush, trips, or full house tonight, but my stealing/semi-bluffing opportunities were plentiful. Ultimately, I won the whole tournament. Let me tell you about some important thoughts I had along the way.

I was getting decent (but not great cards) in a lot of spots where I was acting after a raiser, which I disliked, and why betting is so powerful in no limit hold 'em. Hands like A-T, K-Q, 2-2, and J-T came up semi-frequently. Each time I would have needed to commit about 25-50% of my stack, and a re-raise seemed out of the question, so I would fold. I know many players in that room who would not take such a conservative approach, but I am not one of them. I want to be first in the pot, and unless I have a pretty big monster (A-Q or higher at minimum), I choose to play "solid." The problem is that this evening, this was occuring on most of my decent hands, especially in the last half of the tournament. When someone raises from late position, and I put him on A-x, two broadways, or a pair of some sort, I'm not thrilled about K-Q, which might be dominated, and it will most certainly be behind if the person calls a re-raise. So, patience it was. I did a lot of post-flop betting in position, especially when I had raised pre-flop, and I took down quite a few pots that way, as I was folding my K-Q hands face-up for all to see how "tight" I play. You know, like a rock.

Once we got down to 5-handed, I was the short stack, and the tournament was only going to pay four places. I was very concerned about being yet another bubble boy this year, so I opted to make a deal with the rest of the guys to get our $70 buyin back for a bust out at that point. Everyone agreed, and another guy busted out about two hands later.

Here's a tip: whenever you are destined for a split pot with A-rag, make sure you hit your kicker on the end to cinch the deal. I had A-4, and I went all-in for about 8 times the big blind with 4 people left, and I got an instant call by the small blind with an A-6. The flop came:

A-K-8

the turn:

A

the river:

4 (bam; full house)

Both of our kickers were dead, so we were bound to be simply splitting the big blind that had folded. But instead, I knocked him out of the tournament. That was my first bout with fortune.

There were then three remaining players, who were all very good competitors, and we all had about the same amount of chips. We opted to simply split $1500 of the pot 3-ways and play for the remaining $160.

Agressive betting against one guy (after he had repeatedly stolen my blinds) yielded a pot with what I speculate was either the best hand or close, as he seemed to have constant lengthy decisions throughout the hand. Ultimately, I had about half the chips in play, and I took him out. I then had a 5-1 chip lead, and several times I opted to call his all-in blind hoping just to get lucky without too much at risk. When I snap-called with something like a J-5 off-suit, he didn't quite know what to think, and I think it slowed him down from making moves like that too often. I did that about 4 times (after building chips up again when it failed), all of which I was either a very, very slight favorite or a slight dog, and I lost all of them, which sucks, but that is poker. Ultimately, we were both pushing all-in a lot, but when he pushed with 4-4 and I called with A-K, we literally coin-flipped for $160, as we had a comparable number of chips. I won.

So a long Ameristar tournament losing streak is broken. Thank goodness.

Full Tilt Sit-N-Go

Recently, my confidence has been lessened in tournament play because of a string of really, really bad beats. In the past 3 weeks, I've had a 2 outer hit with 2 cards to come for my tournament life at Ameristar, and I've had several times where I've had my opponent dominated, but got outdrawn for my tournament life. Everyone has these runs, and learning to handle the associated emotions has been extremely important in the development of my game. But all of these recent games have been live at Ameristar's Tuesday night tournament. I have been very intimidated to play online, as serial losses happen a lot faster when you are dealt twice as many hands per hour (or whatever it is).

When I do play online, I pretty much stick to sit-n-gos at Full Tilt. I enjoy the ability to sit down whenever I want and play within about 5 minutes. I also like the whole experience to be over with in about an hour or a little longer. Tonight, while in Champaign, Illinois on business travel, I decided to unwind at the end of the night with another game. I was really, really apprehensive to do so, as my Pavlovian response is that poker is bad and costs me money as of late. It also costs me years off my ticker.

So tonight, as usual, I set out to win. I played a 18-person tournament, and I dominated. I got several big hands, and I set huge traps against agressive players. My bluffs were working very frequently against the weaker players. With 6 players left, I had half the chips in play, and I never dipped again below 40% of the chips in play for the rest of the tournament.

Tonight, one of the other players at the table liked to push all-in pre-flop for 10 and 20 times the big blind, and he did it really, really frequently. None of the hands went to showdown until the end, but I suspected that it was when he had a hand range like:

• any pair
• any ace higher than an 8
• any two broadway cards that included at least one king or queen

I knew that if I got heads-up with this guy, that I'd have no problem defeating him, as he was going to put way too much at risk when I had the goods. I did my fair share of stealing and lite raising, which is absolutely necessary in late-stage tournament play. I even set him up a few times with min-raises that I repeatedly folded to a re-raise so that I could build a huge pot with a big hand and shove. I was dealt A-A three times and K-K once during the course of the tournament, but I only got action on one of the pairs of aces, and it was well before I was heads-up.

I thought this guy was good, but I thought I had a few significant edges and reads on his play. I was really looking for the final knock-out, which required some setup, including using the chat window and some of that wonderful lingo that is used in online chatting, like:

• nh
• thought u wr bluffng
• u2

All of this was an attempt to lure him into thinking that I didn't have as much experience as him. Honestly, I don't know if it worked, but he did play along and "coach" me a little. Thanks, bud. Oh, and thanks for all your chips and calling with middle pair at the end. My top pair, three kicker had him blown away. He was a really nice guy, though, and I'm glad I got a chance to play with him, as I was able to prove that I can use my observational skills to seek and destroy.

To quote high-stakes pro Chau Giang, "Poker is nice. I love play poker."

Emotion Can Yield Bad Things

This will come as a shock to no one, but let me say it: I am emotional. Or shall I say volatile. Like potassium metal. Poker is a very unemotional game at its heart, but it is easy to get excited during the course of the game. Why do you think tells are so powerful in live games? I can get emotional when any or all of the following happen:

• I get a bad beat.
• I lay a bad beat on someone.
• I get dealt A-A, K-K, or A-K.
• I haven't seen a good hand in a very long while.
  
• I see someone playing horribly, and I terribly want to exploit them.
• I believe I am the best player at the table.
• I believe I am the worst player at the table.
• I get moved to a new table after finally getting comfortable where I am.
  
• A dealer breaks a known rule, and won't admit it.
• The moon is aligned with Mars.
  

Sometimes emotion makes me play horribly (tilt), while other times it drives me. I'd like to think that I get emotional a lot less than I used to, but I can stilll go over the edge without much effort. Tonight it happened. Again.

Usually, I keep a level head, even when I'm dealt a pretty big hand. I try to figure out the best way to play it most of the time, but tonight I didn't think about it enough. I was playing in my usual poker tournament on Tuesday nights at Ameristar in Kansas City, and I was down to just under the starting amount of chips, or about 2400. The blinds were at 50-100, so I had an M of about 17, give or take, but 20 minute blinds will eat you alive. And fast. I was sitting at the table with a bunch of average players, and I didn't feel particularly threatened. The guy under the gun made a standard raise to 300. It folds around to me, about 4th to act behind him in middle position, and I look down at:

A-K

I don't know why, but I immediately threw folding out of my mix of options. I could put 1/8th of my stack in and call, and hope that no one behind me pushes, or I can just push all in myself, as I really can't make a standard re-raise of half my chips. I'd rather put my opponent to the test. So I pushed. "All In." Pretty standard, right?

Well, there was a big tell that I usally would pick up on, but for some reason I didn't. This guy who had initially raised looked at me, and he said, "I want some action." He was under the gun, and raised, which is usually a sign of pretty good strength, but those words probably should have given my pause. But emotion can make a person crazy at the table. So crazy that I didn't really stop to consider what he might have in this spot. I just hoped he'd lay it down, and we'd move on to the next hand.

Well, he instantly called when it got back around to him, and can I tell you that I was really hoping that he'd flip over K-K, as I know I was way behind, and that would have given me the best shot to win (about 32% or so). But nope. It was the cooler:

A-A

My equity is about 15% in that spot, and I got to pack my bags and go home.

This really isn't a bad beat story. It is an anecdote to remember to give pause and truly consider your opponents cards and everything about the play you are making. Don't just shove and pray. It spells disaster about 67.34235254% of the time.

September Las Vegas Trip

So, in between jobs again, I decided to try to go play poker on another trip. After looking around on various travel sites, I decided that trips to Foxwoods and Atlantic City weren't economically feasible on one week's notice. So, a trip to tripres.com and a sense of adventure led me to the Palace Station. Round trip and hotel for 6 nights was $286! That cannot be beat. The hotel even had a free airport and strip shuttle. It definitely was a trip on a budget, but I'm really glad I went.

I woke up every morning I was there, and I took the shuttle to the strip. I then walked the rest of the day everywhere I needed to go, which probably amounted to about 25 miles for the week. The different tournaments I played in included:

• The Venetian, noon, 7500 starting chips, $150 (best deal in Vegas poker)
  
• Planet Hollywood, 2pm, 3500 starting chips, $80
  
• Sahara, 7pm and 11pm, 6500 starting chips, $45 + $20 rebuy
  
• Treasure Island, 7pm bounty, 4500 starting chips, $65
  
• Treasure Island, 10pm, 3500 starting chips, $120 ($50 for bounty

Even though I went alone this trip, as Michaela was very busy with her surgery rotation, I still managed to find a few interesting anecdotes to share.

I played in a Treasure Island tournament at 10pm one night, and I felt like I was playing very well. Ultimately, it got down to the last 9 or so out of the starting 35, and I had a rather drunk gal to my left who pushed all-in with any ace, no matter how many times the original blind/raise was. She would make click (double) or standard raises with pocket pairs, but the push meant any ace, including a whopping 3 to go with it. To top it off, this drunk gal was very beligerant. It was becoming comical, in fact. She told me on several occasions, "I hate you" repeatedly. She was paranoid that those around her were talking about her (they were, and so would you have, but I didn't have the heart to tell her that). Utlimately, I folded hands as big as pocket 9's to her pre-flop all-in antics, and that wasn't pleasant. Especially when I figured to be a favorite against her range. I just wasn't willing to take the chance.

Well, when it got down to 4-handed, the beligerance became nearly unbearable. The rest of us were simply trying to find a way to take her out, though this was unspoken. Finally, I took out the other two people, and it was down to me and the drunk chick. Oh, and she was getting drunker. She then asked if she could use the bathroom, but when I asked the floor if they would stop the clock, they ruled no, so I said, "Sorry. I'm not going to let the blinds go up while you are gone. You'll have to stay until break." I thought she would blow a gasket. I knew there was about 45 minutes until the next break, and it would be damn near impossible for her to wait that long.

She finally gave in, and while she was gone, the dealers quickly dealt a few hands that I got to win uncontested. That put us back to even chips, and from there, I simply outplayed her, and I won outright. Trust me, her pleas for a chop prior to her restroom break were tempting, especially considering her A-anything antics, but I held out, and I was rewarded, with about $200 additional dollars. For some reason I felt bad afterward, and I offered to buy her a drink at the bar right next to the poker room. She brought her friend, Tyler, and introduced herself as Marla.

Tyler plays a bunch of poker, and it was really cool to chat with him about his passion for the game as well. The ends often justify the means, and although it was a hell of a journey to get to this future friendship, it was worth it. Tyler and I hung out together a lot of the rest of the week, in fact, though Marla had to go home.

Tyler invited me to play in my first bounty tournament the next day at Treasure Island. It was different, as I received a $50 reward for knocking any player out of the tournament. I did so once, but unfortunately, Tyler was sitting directly to my left, and his high level of agression got me aggrevated quickly, and I soon was out of the tournament. Emotionality is usally a bad thing in poker, and although I attempt breathing excersises and avoiding confrontation, I still cannot control it 100%. Oh, well.

There were a lot of Brits that I played with that week, but there was particular guy named Daniel that I met that was very memorable. I played with him on day 2 at the Sahara, and he was sitting to my right. I try to make friends with those around me at a poker table, both to pass the time and prevent major clashes (or induce them, if they are the hyper-drunks I talked about earlier). But Daniel was different. He was a good player. He was very thoughtful about parts of the game that most players aren't, like players to act behind them, chip stacks, etc. I knew I didn't want to clash with him, and fortunately, I didn't have to do so, at least that night.

I then saw Daniel at a subsequent Venetian tournament, and we were at the same table again. Again, my strategy remained the same. This guy limps with a lot of big hands, but it seemed he did it more out of fear than from some kind of trapping mentality. Again, I didn't have to butt heads with him, and I ended up bubbling in that tournament.

Well, the third time I saw him was at a Planet Hollywood tournament, and he was seated to my immediate left. I wasn't thrilled about the prospect, but he wasn't going to be the source of my chips at that table anyway, so I decided not to worry about it.

My activity increased, though, and I think he started to paint me as a loose- or maybe even crazy-aggressive. I try to find as many stealing opportunties as possible in tournaments, and I think he was starting to pick up on that and get frustrated. And then the blow-up occurred.

I was the small blind, and he was big. As soon as he posted, he looked at me and said, "I'm going all-in no matter what on this hand." I guess he was simultaneously frustrated and feeling short-stacked. The action folded around to me, and I looked down at A-9 offsuit. I knew Daniel hadn't looked at his hand, and I thought two things could happen:

1. I'd go all in, and he'd call blind, in which case I would probably be at least a 60% favorite.
2. I'd go all in, and he'd fold, and his frustration would increase even more.

I didn't have enough chips to make a standard raise, so I went ahead and pushed. Daniel instantly called, and he flipped over 2-7 offsuit. Classic. Total tilt. Luckily, A-9 held up, and I raked a pretty substantial pot.

Later, at a break, he was still there, as his dad was also at our table earlier, which I think was getting him off his game even farther (this despite his line of "Nothing gets me off my game." No one is immune). Ultimately, all three of us hopped in their car and went to the Orleans for TGI Friday's and another tournament. We discussed hands along the way, and I tried to explain my logic of why I went all in on that hand. I then got a glimpse into the powerful thing that is poker psychology. I really learned that both Daniel and his father are insanely pessimistic about their results. Here are a few of the thoughts I heard (paraphrased):

• You should never push all-in when you suspect your American opponent has a flush draw on the flop, as they'll always call (even though you are a 66% favorite assuming they have no other outs).
  
• Pocket aces always get cracked.
• The river is always where your awesome hand gets sucked out. We should just play with four community cards.

I told them that their pessimistic thinking was probably causing them to play badly, and that they needed to read the Psychology of Poker to learn about these mentalities that are wearing on them. They were extremely nice people, though, and I was very glad to have met a few new friends in Vegas. I hope to run into them again someday, as I'm positive that if they can get over this chronic pessimism and easy tilt, that they'll end up as great poker players as well.

Every night, after I was finished for the day, I would walk back to my hotel. Here's a tip: don't walk on Industrial Rd or Highland when it is about 2am alone with lots of cash on you. The low-class strip clubs combined with the thuggish druggies who wander the streets generally yield bad things. I did make it back to the hotel ok, but I gradually started walking the more safe route of using the well-lit strip most of the way, and taking Sahara all the way over to the Station. I put a lot of miles on my legs, and I lost about 8 pounds in a week. Nice.

Desperation, Fear, and Implied Collusion

Here's a scenario that every tournament player should always be aware of: blinds and antes are constantly going up, and they are often rising faster than the average stack in the tournament. Eventually, especially if you sit back and wait for pocket aces to play, you'll ultimately have all your chips swallowed by the inevitable costs to play.

Well, there is something else to consider. In a tournament, you never want to enter a desperation stage, as that is when the wolves at the table will circle around you and silently collude in order to watch you croak. When Dan Harringon talks about "M", or the number of times you can go around the table paying only blinds and antes before you fall out of the tournament, he talks about different zones, or levels of M, where you should act differently for proper tournament strategy.

Well, I think a lot of it boils down to this: installing fear in your opponents is very, very important. It is always easier to win a pot uncontested than to win one that goes to showdown on the river. Therefore, you want to avoid that situation as much as possible. So, establishing a tight image and pushing with any two cards while the chips still scare opponents is a very important concept. They don't want to lose their chips, and when your M gets too low, the cost to them will be insignificant. Never reach this point. It is very important that you consider pushing with a very, very wide range of hands when your chips can still intimidate and you are short, stacked. An M of 3 is often quoted as the desperation point, so well before then, you need to start pushing.

The risk of being knocked out of the tournament is obviously present, but your risk is enormously greater for waiting and hoping for a favorable result with your inevitable short stack shove and subsequent call by a vulture. Be proactive. Push your opponents out of pots while you still can.

Vegas Wrap Up

I never did get a chance to post the end of my experiences in Vegas. So, here goes.

Here's a tip: No matter how cheap the price is, never, ever stay at the Golden Gate Hotel on Fremont Street, especially in a non-smoking room. I needed to book an extra day or two so that I could play in the Binion's monthly qualifying tournament (if you won any tourney during the month, you got to play in this freeroll for a jackpot consisting of a dollar or two from everyone's entries for the month). Well, I booked the Golden Gate, and since I had stayed at three different downtown hotels, which aren't notorioiusly the nicest and/or cleanest, but still remained unbothered, that I'd go for the cheapest I could find on short notice.

Well, the Golden Gate only has a few non-smoking rooms (like 4, maybe?). I had called the night before to confirm a non-smoking room, and they said yes, but when I arrived, they said they had none left. I insisted that they give me one, and finally they did, but only after some arm twisting. I got to my room, and it appeared fine. In fact, I thought I had gotten a real bargain! The fixtures were a bit outdated, but come on! I'm in Vegas. Who cares, as I'm only going to be in my room for about 9 hours a day. Right?

Wrong. Once I tried to fall asleep, I heard a repeating, very loud thunk outside, about every 15 minutes. All night. Turns out that there was a garbage dump and chute system right below my window. Wonderful. It made for a fabulously tiring last couple of days in Vegas, and it probably helped me to lose miserably. But no sleep is curable with a shower. Right?

Wrong again. Since the plumbing of the oldest hotel in Vegas is approximately 100 years old, it makes for some wonderfully unpleasant fluctuations in water temperature. Any sink, toilet, or shower that was used in another room instantly changed the water temperature around 100 degrees. It was awesome! I would wait for it to dip to near room temperature and quickly attempt to rinse my face, only to have the water scald my scalp at 200 degrees. Oh, and the pressure would change as well. I hated it.

My Binion's freeroll was a joke, as we only had like 2000 in starting chips with 15 minute blinds and about 70 players. Everyone was pushing chips around like they weren't meaningful, as it was a freeroll. I was out about 1 hour into it, when my 10s didn't hold up against another player's A-Q. He had been raising constantly, and I finally just took a stand. And then I lost. Oh, well.

I then drove home and started my search for a job. Needless to say, it was disappointing to leave, as I really enjoyed it, but Vegas can really wear on you after a short while, and since I was there until May 5, it was a lot longer than a short while...

The blog is back!

Good things come to those who are patient. Today, alanvoss.com became available (after some advertising page ass swallowed it for the first part of the year). It is now mine. All mine. God Bless America.

Well, after obtaining the domain from wonderful domain registrar godaddy.com, I decided that I needed to bring back my blog, as I hadn't posted in a while, and my previous poker blog site, mypokerblog.net, had to close down due to excessive spamming. The guy who runs the site, Stefan Klopp, was really cool and sent me all of my posts for which I didn't have backups (thanks to Bryan Cox as well for sending me his RSS feed copies). Between the two, I was able to piece together pretty much everything but the comments, which unfortunately are permanently history, I think.

Google's blogger is better anyway, though, as I can do my domain hosting and have automatic web-crawling of my site, which can do nothing but good things for my publicity.

So, here's to the new blog!

Still More Poker Results

Here's my latest update. Lots of ups and downs, but still ahead.

• Plaza, sit-n-go, super fast tournament, 1st place
• Binion's, 11pm, fast tournament, 4th place
• Plaza, sit-n-go, super fast tournament, 1st place
• Planet Hollywood, 2pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Sahara, 7pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Plaza, sit-n-go, super fast tournament, no cash
• Binion's, 11pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Binion's, 11pm, fast tournament, 1st place
• Planet Hollywood, 2pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Sahara, 7pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Plaza, sit-n-go, super fast tournament, no cash
• Binion's, 11pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Plaza, sit-n-go, super fast tournament, 3rd place (no cash)
• Saraha, 7pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Binion's, 11pm, fast tournament, no cash

This is a bigger streak of no cashes, but the game has variance. More to come, I'm certain.

Kevin: high school bud and fellow poker player

My buddy from high school, Kevin, came down to visit me over the last couple of days. Though Kevin has played a lot of poker in his life, he has not ever done so at a casino, and so I was ready to introduce him to some good games here in Vegas. But the first order of business was playing heads-up in the hotel room at the Plaza, as we had missed the good tournaments due to his late Wednesday arrival. We went 2-2 for the night, and given my stellar heads-up record in the recent past, I thought that he was ready to give Vegas a run for its money. We started at the Plaza sit-n-gos. $40 and 10 people, most of which don't know much about how to play poker well. I remember a particular situation where a guy to my left kept commenting on "floating" an opponent for an attempted bluff on a later street, and the kinds of cards that you want to have in the hole to do so. Mostly, I thought he was full of it and himself. I was ecstatic to have him acting behind me, as I thought I could induce some stupid errors. With the action folded around to me, I made it 300 to go with 50-100 blinds on the button. I held the: [!diamond_three][!club_three] which is not a hand that I really care to see a flop with, but it is definitely a good button raise hand to attempt to steal the blinds. Mr. Sklansky, as we'll call him, went all-in. For those without the poker math prowess, Unless he's holding a 2 or 3 in his hand, I'm no better than about 50% to win the pot, and if he's holding an over pair, I'm about a 4 to 1 dog. I folded, but I showed my pocket pair. He flipped over:

A-D, K-D

which is a classic poker race. I felt that I could outplay him at a future time by showing how tight I play, and he explained to me the David Sklansky "gap theory" in tournament poker, which is that one needs a stronger hand to call than to raise, and that I shouldn't want to gamble in that situation. I was well familiar with that theory, as it is pretty much page one of any tournament poker book, but I decided not to reveal that. Anyhow, on the next trip around on the button, I had the:

A-D, 8-D

which isn't a stellar hand, but since the action had been folded around, I raised again. He immediately went all-in, as I suspected he would do, but he did so very, very quickly, which led me to believe that he was going to do it no matter what I did, like it was rehearsed. I called immediately as well, as I had rehearsed exactly that scenario in advance, and I figured he'd be more risky since he knew I could lay down pairs. He knew he was in trouble, and he flipped over the:

T-S, 6-S

Nice hand, bucko. A re-raise with a hand without much possibility of winning. He actually outflopped me with a 6, but I turned an Ace, and after internally thinking about justice, he left the table. I said, "Keep reading those math books," at which point the entire table started laughing, including the dealer. When it was 3-way, Kevin, this other guy, and I were left, and we all had a similar number of chips. I ended up flopping bottom two pair while the other guy flopped top two, and I was out after pushing all-in. Kevin ultimately took second place, as the guy drew out on his top pair, open ended straight draw. Kevin and I then hit two other tournaments that night, and neither of us did well in either. We played some more heads-up in the room, and then we watched Poker After Dark until we were both unconscious. The trip to the airport was a doosy this afternoon. We left about an hour and fifteen before his flight, and we then hit a wall of traffic when a hottie rear-ended someone in the opposite lanes. Every desperate guy in Vegas had to take a look in our direction. Ultimately, we pulled up to the terminal when there 47 minutes before his flight left, but he made it. Awesome.

Video Games and Mental Anguish

Poker is a brutal game. Those who play regularly already know. You much do constant math, attempt to guess at your opponents' range of hands, guess what your opponents think you have, look for any any every tell you can, etc. Brutal. And sometimes a good, educated guess will come up wrong. Most of the time, with careful study, I can beat my opponents, but on the days that I cannot, I can become disheartened. So I took a day off.

After doing my weekly round of laundry, I decided to play this old-school computer game from the late 90's called The Pandora Directive. It is one of those humorous detective games that forces you to observe and interact with the environment. It is good for honing the mind without stress. After a while, I turned on the television, and some cheesy commercial caused me to re-evaluate life and the purpose of this trip. When my goals were to make such-and-such amount on this trip and I'm coming up way short, what is my purpose? I have all of my expenses covered with poker earnings plus a little, but what are my opportunity costs? What is the meaning of life? I love reading Daniel Negreanu's blog at fullcontactpoker.com, and this particular entry came to mind on what I was experiencing:

http://fullcontactpoker.com/poker-journal.php?subaction=showfull&id=1204894481&archive=&start_from=&ucat=&

Luckily, a talk with Michaela greatly encouraged me, and I went to a late night tournament at Binion's and took first. This time, I took it without a chop. Things were just going my way again. After a string of losses, it is easy to wonder if poker is a game that is consistently beatable, and the answer is that it isn't. Weaker players beat me by collectively playing draws which eventually hit, and stronger players can outplay me. Either way, it is difficult. My results are still way in the positive, but the "making money with poker" is not something that comes without a lot of hard work and repeated attempts. Although this is a vacation for me, it is also an attempt to make money in a different, more non-conventional way. Mental struggle is just part of the experience. Professional gamblers have a tendency to be addicted to puzzle solving. My playing poker is no exception. I need to combine a player's past patterns with card, chip, and position plays with my own card, chip, and position plays, which is to say that poker is very situational. When I am not playing poker, I've been working on solving the Rubik's cube (especially before bed), and my new fastest time is 1 minute 18 seconds. I was able to do a second one at 1 minute 38 seconds, so it probably wasn't a fluke. Yep, I'm bringing nerdy back. How's that for a blog entry filled with a bunch of random thoughts? Thanks for bearing with me.

Kyle, Melissa, Traci, Geoff, and Steve

Simultaneously I had a bunch of friends and one family member visit me. My Kansas City karaoke buds (Kyle, Melissa, and Traci), my cousin (Geoff), and his friend (Steve). First, on Friday, my cousin Geoff and Steve arrived. We headed straight to the sports book where Geoff was making some parlay bets on multiple things that may or may not occur during a hockey game. It was also a good opportunity to get some free drinks. God bless Vegas. We then walked the strip to the Venetian and ate at a great place there, after which I headed home.

Then, on Saturday, my three friends arrived, and we started out at the Hilton pool, which is a great place to begin in Las Vegas. Kyle and I actually hopped into the "heated" pool (about 65 degrees, I'm guessing), and after some relaxing, Kyle decided that the temperature and wind outside was too much, so he hopped out of the pool. I remained, and after about five minutes, I happened to be looking in the lifeguard's general direction, and her large, collapsed shade umbrella with long and heavy metal pole fell off her stand and conked a girl directly on the head without so much as a sound warning. The lifeguard didn't even respond, but other lifeguards ran to her rescue and she seemed to be alright. After speaking with her later, I discovered that she didn't even ask for an upgraded suite or anything, as she said she had drank so much that she didn't really even feel the large bump on her head.

Then, while Steve was at a Van Halen concert (the David Lee Roth version), the rest of us went to Smith and Wollensky, an upscale steak place. Geoff had seen this waiter named Ken pull off some wacky Chris Farley imitation in the past (and he even claimed it was "life changing" in the email he sent me afterward), so we decided to request this waiter as well. Hilarity ensued. This guy did one heck of a Tom Foley, motivational speaker imitation, but mostly he was combining his comedy with his obvious love of Traci. He hit on her the entire time, but used his comedy as a way to make it funny. And it was. I haven't laughed that hard in a very long time. He even knocked over one of the wine glasses, and yelled, "Son of a..." I wish we could have the entire event on camcorder, as it was as good or better as any show in Vegas. If you come to Vegas, request Ken. It is worth the $45 steak price. Oh, and make sure you get the Macaroni. He does shows around the country, and you can check him out at kenasfarley.com.

Since the night is never complete unless karaoke is involved, we headed to Ellis Island, a shady little off-strip location near Bally's. Traci wowed the audience with some SWV, Kyle sang a song I never heard before, and I (predictably, perhaps) did "Baby Got Back." Melissa and Geoff watched as the three of us outperformed the competition.

The next day, Kyle, Geoff and I played in a couple of poker tournaments, and Geoff placed in one, but Kyle and I just lamented our losses. On Monday, Geoff headed out of town, and after wishing his sister, Anna, a happy birthday, I headed over to the Hilton to hang out with the rest of the gang for the day. It was a much needed break from poker. We headed to In-N-Out Burger. My excitement and hunger got the best of me, but as we were pulling into the entryway, we noticed that two cops were just sitting in the exit, and a van immediately in front of us just came to a stop, so there was no way to get in. The van was waiting on an SUV, and after I got annoyed (about 1.3 seconds), I went ahead and laid on the horn. Oops. That's when I noticed a 700-point font on the side that said: SHERIFF. Note to self: "Stop honking at the police." Traci told me that I received several glares from all the police involved, but luckily I was able to enjoy my burger without handcuffs. We then went atop the Stratosphere, where we talked about the recent suicide jump rumor and the strange spike lightning rod system. I believe we went back to the hotel, grabbed some food, and headed to the airport. I'm so thankful my friends have been out here to make this a pleasant trip.

More Poker Results

Despite the numerous visits from friends and family, I've done my best to play poker and post internet blogs (even though you all are letting me know loudly that I haven't). I haven't done as well in the last few days on the poker scene, but here are the results:

• Fitzgerald's, 12pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Planet Hollywood, 7pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Binion's, 8pm, medium-slow tournament, chop 1st place
• Planet Hollywood, 2pm, no cash (see story below)
• Sahara, 7pm, fast tournament, no cash (but friend Cory took 3rd)
• Venetian, 12pm, slow tournament, no cash
• Caesar's, 3pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Binion's, 11pm, fast tournament, no cash
• Planet Hollywood, 2pm, fast tournament, chop 1st place
• Binion's, 11pm, fast tournament, no cash

At one of the Planet Hollywood tournaments, at which I have been doing quite well, I made a couple of mistakes. To set the story up, I must tell you that a few of the poker rooms around here don't have a large cupholder for drinks, and since I am bringing Vitamin Water and G2 in bigger bottles, I often don't have anywhere to set my drink but on the floor. Well, I was in the middle of sipping my beverage when I was dealt: [!club_ten][!spade_ten] I promptly set the Vitamin Water on the table, and I raised in earlier position. A guy in late position raised me, and after putting him on a couple of high cards, I thought I could weather an all-in if I was wrong and take his chips if I was right. After pushing all-in, he promptly did so as well, and he flipped over:

Q-H, Q-S

Oops. After seeing the results, my hand clipped the top of the bottle somehow (those who know me will be very shocked), and the entire contents of the wide-mouthed bottle dashed into my lap. Yummy. Sticky Vitamin Water coursing down my legs and crotch. Jealous? It would have been nice to make a graceful exit, but after losing the hand, I still had chips, and I proceeded to push any ace or king all-in until I had my original chip stack back! I then attempted to be discreet and ask a waitress for a towel. She had to ask why, and then in a semi-loud voice she announced, "What? Did you have an accident?" (Giggles from most of the poker room) I busted out shortly thereafter. Luckily I was in a place where the young and hip go, so walking through the casino halls toward my car with a large stain was entertaining to say the least. I attempted to cover it up with my backpack, but I'm pretty sure that most people knew. I smiled and moved on to the shower at the Four Queens hotel without passing Go. Needless to say, I'll be more careful about my beverages, and possibly even consider using the ones the casino supplies, which fit nicely into their petite cupholders. Ah, the fun.

Calling Station 54, Where Are You?

Calling stations are players who see most or all flops, call a lot with weakness on the turn, and river a lot of strange hands. I love them, though many poker players become very frustrated with these types of players. Many beginners think that they should win a lot of money on hands where they are the favorite, but they overvalue their hands, and so they get snapped off a bunch by these fellows. I'd rather lose a couple of hands to these calling stations, but win a bunch on my really strong hands (like 2 pair or better). Last night I was playing the 11pm tournament at Binion's. It is a good tournament, as the fields are weaker, and finding players to give me their chips is usually not a problem. This young chap started to call any bet pre-flop, and usually called a post-flop bet, no matter how big. I had seen him do some flamboyant raising as well, and in those circumstances, he was usually on a bluff. I called his all-in bet on the river with A-K high, and he deflated after he showed A-8 high. And he was doubling people up by calling bets on the river with A high several times. This became my mission: to play a pot with this guy and flop a monster. I knew I'd get paid off.

In no-limit poker, speculating with lesser hands is often a good thing, especially in later positions after you have seen all of the action ahead of you. Mr. Calling Station (we'll call him CS for short) called in middle position (shocking) and I called from the button with:

5-S, 4-S

I turned to the guy to my left and told him, "I'm hoping to flop a monster here." And I did:

6-H, 3-H, 2-S

The nuts. A made straight. There were two hearts on the board, so I needed to protect my hand, but this was a great situation to get this guy's chips. He promptly bet, and I assessed his stack. I knew he would at least call if I raised, but I didn't want to push just yet. I raised about half of my stack, and he pushed all-in. I instantly called. He flipped over a set:

3-C, 3-S

That gives him 7 outs on the turn and 10 on the river to make him a full house (any pair on the board has me beat by the river). That gives me about 64% chance to win the pot, which is a lot less than I would have hoped, especially seeing how he was paying off people with Ace high previously. Well, the turn and river brought:

T-D, T-H

And I was out of the tournament. The best laid plans...

The Weaker Players

Something inside of me wants to win badly when I sit at any poker table, and my natural instinct is to attempt to control the action and push the issue. Most poker players who attempt to make their living have gone through similar emotions, and the first goal is to learn to control them. For example, I often like to find the other poker players at the table who are skilled, and I like to pick on them and be especially tricky, I guess to prove that I am better at poker than them. Unfortunately, they know the drill, and I get picked off sometimes. The better players to exploit are not the talented players, but those with known tendencies. Although I switch between tight-aggressive and loose-aggressive modes, depending on my table and chip stacks, I generally have learned that straight-forward poker with adjustments to individual players (especially in position when I can act after the player) is a must.

• The Ueber-tight Player: I bet a lot when they check, and I raise a lot when they bet. Of course, they'll start to notice that tendency and begin to grow frustrated with me, but instead of playing back at me, they often play even more tightly hoping to snap me off. I have usually backed off by then, or at least at the sign of first resistance.
• The Calling Station: My favorite. They call all the time, so they cannot be bluffed, but they will pay you off huge when you have the nuts or a good made hand. I value bet and value bet and value bet some more.
• The Former Jock: Also known as the Ball Cap Kids (which I blogged about previously), these guys attempt to steal a bunch. Re-stealing with an all-in is a good bet most of the time against this type of player when you sniff a bluff, but I often don't have the heart to push all my chips into the pot, so I simply re-raise. This usually accomplishes my mission. These guys usually talk a bunch and wince a lot, and they usually aren't very smart.

When I am playing well, I exploit these kinds of weaknesses, and they are everywhere. Though the fields in Las Vegas have gotten a little tougher than the last time I was here, they are still very weak at the levels which I play. I'll tell you about my attempted exploit in my next blog. Oh, and it went badly.

Adventures in Vegas (from the non-poker side)

As I haven't had much of a chance to post recently (mostly because getting any kind of reasonable price on internet is difficult), I thought I'd give you a heads up on the recent happenings. Cory, Tomiko, and I took a trip up the Stratosphere tower. Although they opted out, I chose to take a cruise on the three extreme rides at the top for a measly $14 more. Anyhow, the view was at the same time vertigo-causing and awe-inspiring. The rides, dubbed Insanity, X-Scream, and Big Shot, are very cool to the ride enthusiast. Rather than attempt to describe the rides, take a search on youtube for them... There are many examples. Very, very high. Thank goodness for engineers. My brother, Zach, also took a trip out to Vegas this week. Our first order of business was yet another park: The Circus Circus Adventuredome, a complete amusement park indoors (similar to the Mall of America). There was a roller coaster with a couple of hoops, several "4-D" movies complete with water squirts and pokes in the back, tons of arcade and carnival games, and a water ride that will soon be torn down to make way for yet another roller coaster. All in all, visits from family and friends have been a very good time.

The Poker is Outstanding!

Game selection. That is what winning in poker is all about. If you don't choose a good game, you are bound to lose. If you have a choice between playing poker in Kansas City and playing in Las Vegas, you should choose Las Vegas. Tourists are bad, and there are so many of them! In Kansas City, there are definitely some bad players who play in typical cash and tournament games, and generally I pick on those people, as the good players are always trying to outplay me. In Vegas, I am one of the better players at nearly every tournament I play in here, and I rarely feel like the fish. As the famous quote from Rounders goes:

"Listen, here's the thing. If you can't spot the sucker in the first half hour at the table, then you ARE the sucker."

Well, I've started to have an epiphany. I am a really good quick tournament player, but only a mediocre slow tournament player, as the fields are so much better in the slow ones. For those who don't understand the parlance, a quick tournament is generally over between 3 and 6 hours, but a slow tournament can last between 8 hours and multiple days. My results speak for themselves. So far on this trip, I've played in the following tournaments and these results:

• Binion's 11pm, quick tournament, 1st place outright
• Venetian 12pm, slow tournament, no cash
• Caesar's Palace 3pm, quick tournament, no cash
• Venetian 8pm, slow tournament, no cash
• Venetian 12pm, slow tournament, no cash
• Caesar's 3pm, quick tournament, chop 1st place
• Binion's 11pm, quick tournament, no cash
• Caesar's 12pm, slow tournament, no cash
• Caesar's 3pm, quick tournament, no cash
• Binion's 11pm, quick tournament, break even bubble deal
• Planet Hollywood 2pm, quick tournament, chop 1st place
• Treasure Island 11am, quick tournament, no cash
• Caesar's 3pm, quick tournament, no cash
• Binion's 8pm, slow tournament, no cash
• Venetian 12pm, slow tournament, no cash
• Venetian, sit-n-go lightning fast tournament, no cash
• Orleans 7pm, fast tournament, chop 1st place

One of the dealers at Planet Hollywood saw me recording my winnings and table information, and he told me that I was a pretty good fast tournament player (and I agree), but that I should avoid trying to play in the bigger tournaments (the slow ones, which generally have a LOT better players) until I've mastered the smaller ones and gotten better. That sounds pretty reasonable, and so I'm definitely going to be playing more of the faster tournaments where I have quite a bit of success, and save the slower ones until later. Tournaments already have so much volatility in them as-is, and the results of one don't really mean much. But the cumulative winnings are key. I tried to play in the slower tournaments too early, and I got slapped by better players. Patience, and building a bank roll one game at a time is the key to poker success.

Worm: You know what always cheers me up?
Mike McDermott: No, what's that?
Worm: Rolled up aces over kings. Check-raising stupid tourists and taking huge pots off of them. Playing all-night high-limit Hold'em at the Taj, "where the sand turns to gold." Stacks and towers of checks I can't even see over.
Mike McDermott: F*ck it, let's go.
Worm: Don't tease me.
Mike McDermott: Let's play some cards.
Worm: Yes!

The Sleeping Facilities

So, the night before I headed out for my cruise with Michaela, I got a phone call at about 10pm from the guy from whom I was supposed to be leasing my condo. He said that his homeowner's association wouldn't let me into the gated community, as no renters were allowed. This was evidently the result of the association finding the advertisement that I found. Very, very unfortunate. I spent that entire night Hotwiring, Kayaking and Pricelining (thanks to Bryan Cox for teaching me about these wonderful services). After a bunch of work (and no sleep prior to the cruise), I found the following locations that would total about the same amount as the condo:

• Fitzgerald's (first week or so)
• Four Queens (four days)
• Plaza (the rest of the time)

I had stayed at the Plaza before, and it was fine, but the other two were unknowns, and all I had to go on were reviews from various travel sites. When I arrived at my room at Fitzgerald's, I found the wallpaper to be peeling and the carpet to be a little faded, but it seemed fine. The casino isn't much, but it is directly on Fremont Street, which is actually a preferable area than the strip if you ask me. Everything is much more accessible. Except for the parking garage. Back in the days of the dinosaurs, insects like dragonflies got to be about 3 feet wide, but there was a practical limit to their size, as ultimately their exoskeleton would weigh more than their wings would support. Well, this parking garage is the same. It is a very large and tall structure, crammed into a very small amount of land surface area, but is all support and driving surface, and only about 10 cars can park on a level. And it twists up and up and up until finally I can eek into some very small and crowded place. It is laughable, really. At least it is free. Inside the casino, there is a McDonald's and a Krispy Kreme. Ah, fat accessibility for all of the Fitzgerald's customers. But nothing compares to the In-N-Out Burger that is just up the street. I finally got to eat at one, and let's just say McDonald's doesn't even come close...

The long, long drive to Vegas

Well friends, sorry for the late postings, but I'm just finally getting settled in Vegas after an entertaining drive (to say the least). My plans were to drive to my cousin Geoff's house in Avon, Colorado, Tuesday, stay the night, and then continue to Vegas the next day. With my Garmin GPS to help me navigate, I started the long trek from Kansas City. It would be nine hours to Geoff's. Since I hate stopping for gas, and I'm very smart, I decided to coordinate the timing of my "distance to empty" gage on my car and the nearest gas stations on I-70 so that I could stop as few times as possible. I picked a small town. It would coincide with *about* 10 miles left on the tank. I picked the wrong small town. BP station closed. Oops. I kept driving. 9 miles to Oakley. Oops. Sputter, sputter. Put, put. Dumb. Dumb. Dumb. I used to pride myself on never having run out of gas. Those days are long gone. As I started the long three mile walk to Oakley, a car with a bunch of stuff in it and a small Mexican lady pulled up to ask if I needed help. I figured that if she was violent I could overpower her, but she seemed like a nice person, so I went ahead and violated my no hitchhiking rule. After climbing in the car, she explained that her name was Elana, and that she had just broken up with her cheating girlfriend. I explained my situation, told her where the next gas station was, and we drove off. Then, as we're going 70 miles per hour, she explains to me that she had been drinking, and an open bottle of vodka sitting in the cupholder was there as evidence. Good times. We made it to the station, and after paying $9 for a small gas can (they love to rip off dumb people) and filling 'er up, I hopped back in the car. We got back to my car safely. She asked if she could use my phone. I agreed, gave her some cash as a thank you, and I was off to Geoff's, albeit 40 minutes later than usual. I hung out with my cousin Geoff and his wife Jen, and we chatted for a while. In the morning we had breakfast, and then it was off to Las Vegas, baby! The canyons west of the skiing areas in Colorado are quite beautiful. I had never ventured this far west in an automobile, but I'm glad I did. But then Utah happened. Drab desert with strange mountainous formations. Desolate but pretty all at once. The "no service stations for 106 miles" sign said it all. After another eight hours that day, I whipped around a corner on I-15, and there she was. A beautiful sight indeed. The all-too-familiar Las Vegas strip could be seen from quite a distance. Every time I see it, it seems more developed. That's because it is. After carrying in a lot of stuff to my room at Fitzgerald's, I settled in. I then started scouting out tournaments on Fremont Street, where I have spent a lot of time in the past. I settled on an 11pm tournament at Binion's, and I ended up winning. Outright. Some old guy wanted no part of a deal, so I just took his money. And two other guys. But I got lucky at the final four people. I won all of these races (my hand listed first):

K-C, Q-C vs 6-C, 6-S
K-H, J-D vs A-D, 4-D
K-D, Q-C vs A-H, 6-D

And victory! Yeah! Each one of those hands took out one player. The last one was against another math whiz computer programmer type, so I was glad to have survived it in one piece. So, a great start to the Vegas trip!

The Ball Cap Kids

Yep. I'm plagiarizing The Poker Tournament Formula. Someday I'll write a review on this book, but it has taken my game to a new level. In that book, Arnold Snyder discusses a bunch of personality types that will be at your typical poker table. The stereotypes are often very useful, at least until you have a better book on the player, but I've found one to be particularly helpful: The Ball Cap Kid. You know the type. They are young. They are pretty. And they wear their ball cap, normally backward, with a KC or NY logo (around here, at least). And they love to be aggressive. They love to force action. I love to eat their lunch when I can. Last night, after getting knocked out of my favorite Ameristar tournament, I played in the $1-$2 no-limit hold 'em cash game. It is an odd game, as it really costs $5 to even limp, and the big blind still must complete his bet as well. But I digress... I don't play in cash games much at Ameristar, although I should. But last night, sitting in chair nine, I was up about $450 before my favorite kind of player came into the game. Another ball cap kid. I'm the very opposite of discreet. In fact, I'm usually the loudest one at the table. My jabber usually prevents me from calculating odds as quickly as I should, but I'm positive that it gets my opponents off their game more. These ball cap kids love to pick on my personality type, and I love it. For the rest of this post, let's call this particular guy KC. He was sitting to my right, which was exactly where I wanted him. I'd never played with KC before. He was probably about 23, muscular, and generally filled with testosterone. He was one of the backward hat types, so I knew this guy was going to be a big source of my chips for the night. This particular hand was especially noteworthy. KC was under the gun, or the first position after the blinds. He had about $250 in front of him, and I had about $550. He limped for $5. I figure he has approximately squat. I look down at an:

A-H, 9-D

Not a particularly delicious hand, but at this table, I thought it would be a good idea to raise and limit the action. $15 to go. I got one limper behind me, a straightforward tight-passive player, and KC to follow. Effective pot after the rake was $45. KC would be first to act for the rest of the hand. Flop:

9-H, 6-C, 2-S

Not a particularly threatening board. I had top pair, top kicker, but I still wasn't committed to the hand. KC bet out $15 into the $45 pot, so he probably had a piece, but I popped it to $60, figuring that he'd go over the top if he actually had something special, and I could simply fold. The other guy folded, and KC called. Pot: $165. Turn:

K-C

Not a terrific card for my hand. If he was limping with a K-J or K-10 and just betting with overcards on the flop, then I might have been toast. But I still had second pair, top kicker - a hand that I'll go into check-call mode against a loose aggressive, like KC. He bet $45. I honestly didn't know where he was at, but I called anyway, hoping to have a no-betting showdown on the river. Pot: $255. River:

K-S

I liked this card. The chances of KC having a King are much lower now, and since he didn't bet much on the flop, I figure I'm good to go. KC reaches for chips, but he makes a mistake while doing so. He reaches for $45 again, and sets them in front of his stack, but immediately after laying them down, he starts quickly going through the rest of his stack, popping off 2 or 3 additional chips. He throws $60 into the pot. A weak bet at best. I might have laid it down, but grabbing for those additional chips made it look like he was going to be bluffing or semi-bluffing, but he felt like I would call or even raise a $45 bet. I called. He flipped over:

J-D, 9-C

And I won. Ah, let the celebration on my end begin, and the cursing begin with him. I think a lot of players would not have noticed this peculiar chip stacking behavior, but it cost him the pot. Thanks, KC. Next time, don't wear a cap, and don't play top-pair, jack kicker so aggressively (like putting in over half your stack with such a weak holding). There is no reason to force the action so much in a cash game, unless you hate money. After a hand like that, I usually consider every other player at the table, and I ask myself, "How would I have responded to the same series of bets from this player?" Well, it turns out, only one other player at the table would have caused the same series of events post flop, but that player wouldn't have limped with such a mediocre holding under the gun and called a raise. In other words, I would have made no money with my hand from any other player. So here's to you, KC!

Trip to Las Vegas during the month of April

I am planning a trip to Las Vegas, Nevada, from April 2 to May 2, 2008. I have a nice vacation condo rental that I'll be using during that month. I plan on playing as much poker as possible in as many different rooms as I can. It'll be mostly business, but I definitely plan on having fun as well. If you are interested in joining me, please shoot me an email or a call, and we can talk about room arrangements. Currently, these people are visiting:

• Ryan, April 4-10 Cory, April 6-14
• Tomiko, April 11-14 Zach, April 18-21
• Kyle and Melissa, April 19-21
• Traci, April 19-22
• I also have a wedding to go to on April 26 in the Pheonix area.

My condo's features include:

• Free wireless internet
• Free laundry facilities
• Two full sized beds
• 52" television with DVD and VCR
• Full kitchen

Email me for the address. I'm not going to make that information public.

To slow play or not to slow play

How often does this situation come up? A paired board with an undercard, such as this:

9-C, 9-S, 2-C

In the above situation, when I have a nine, I used to think it would be profitable to check and slow play a bit. What I've found, though, is that someone with a two will often call, and an opponent with any two cards above the two might also call on a draw, so betting is usually better. And since flushes or straights almost always seem to be a possibility, whether immediately on the turn or in the backdoor, I like to make people pay to play. But what about the situation where you have the following:

2-H, 2-D

with the above board? I think then you need to really, really determine if your opponent has three of a kind, as you can probably get them to stick all their chips in most of the time. Well, such a situation happened to me the other night in a $1-$2, $60-$200 game at Harrah's in Kansas City. I was on the button, and I raised it up with a pair of deuces after the action had folded around to me. Both blinds called. One was a female who played fairly aggressively, but seemed to bet big postflop, because she either wanted to protect a big hand or because she overvalued a hand. The other guy loved to try to overbet in order to make tighter players fold, and since we had no history, he felt that I fell into that category. Well, the board came a pair of nines and a deuce. Plus, I was last to act. Currently, there was $18 in the pot. The aggressive girl bet out $8. The big blind called. I felt like the girl *might* have a nine, and so I raised it up to $35, which is a fairly large raise, but I knew we could get my $280 into the pot quicker if she did. She called. I figured there was little possibility that she had a J-2, so I was ready to push. There weren't any scare cards for me, but I wouldn't have minded if the flush card came, as I was already boated. In fact, if she was on a draw, it could do nothing but good things for me. The big blind folded. On the turn, with $88 in the pot, she bet out $45. I was certain she had a nine, and I just hoped she wouldn't hit her kicker for a better full house. I definitely wasn't going anywhere, so I went all in there. She immediately called. Huge pot. Sure enough, she had a:

J-H, 9-D

and neither a nine nor a jack came, so I doubled up. If I get the sense that my opponent doesn't have a big hand when I flop something like this, I might be included to bet small or even check. Poker is such a game of feel.

How not to play 8-3 clubs

As many no limit poker players know, position plays a big part in the decision making process. Tuesday I was playing in a tournament I play in regularly at the Ameristar Casino in Kansas City. I have a fairly good record there, and it happens to be my favorite tournament in the metro area. Playing position is good, and often button raises are profitable, although I believe they are less profitable than what they used to be. This particular tournament starts with 2500 in chips, about 40 players, and the 20-minute blind levels progress through 25-25, 25-50, and the level at which we were currently: 50-100. I had about 6500 in chips at this point, and I was currently chip leader at our table amongst a bunch of average stacks and a couple of big ones. I was just moved to a new table, and I only recognized two of the players. One of the players (Player X) I had experience with, and I knew that he had a tendency to over-value his hands. He had a comparable chip stack, about 6000, and so I felt I should get involved with him to see if I could hit a monster. I had just come from a table that was very easy to read, and I also hit a few hands that got me some chips. With one limper in middle position (pot 250), I raised it to 300 (pot 550) on the button with:

8-C, 3-C

The big blind happened to be player X. I thought I'd at least take out the small blind and have position on the other two. The small blind folded, Player X called (pot 750) and the limper folded. We saw a flop (suits may be wrong here, but weren't relevant for the most part):

A-H, 4-D, 2-S

Not exactly a dream flop for my hand. Player X bet out 600 (pot 1350). I figured my opponent had a reasonable Ace in his hand, but that it probably wasn't that strong since he didn't raise pre-flop. I thought I could fade another card and potentially make a move on the turn if I called, and so I did (pot 1950). If I hit a 5, bingo! If not, and my opponent bet anyway, I could probably just fold. Turn:

8-S

This improved my hand, but it really wasn't the card I wanted to see. I looked at my opponent as he measured out some chips, and he made it 1200 to go (pot 3150). Well, shucks. My hand improved, but by how much? I still thought he was protecting top pair, but I also felt like he was a little scared that I would take away the pot if he didn't bet. So, I thought any of these cards would *probably* give me a winner:

5-H, 5-D, 5-C, 5-S, 3-D, 3-H, 3-S, 8-D, 8-H

for a total of nine real outs. I also felt that any of the spades could be used as so-called phantom outs for a bluffing opportunity. For some reason, I justified a call here, even though it was for a whole lot of my remaining stack (pot 4350). This was a very, very, risky play, and in retrospect, I should have just given up and found a better spot. After my call, he says, "I can't believe you just called that." Neither could I. The river:

8-H

Wow. I just got runner-runner three of a kind. My heart skipped a beat. He thought for quite a while, and then he checked. I figured he had given up after the two eights came. Another jackass at the table who wasn't involved in the hand said, "Runner-runner to beat your ace?" I could have checked here, and just shown down my hand and hoped it held up, but there wasn't any straight or flush fears on the board, so I decided it would be profitable to value bet here. By betting, my opponent might fold, and I wouldn't have to show the crappy cards that I had been playing all along to attempt to suck out and/or bluff this guy. I bet 1200 (pot 5550). He thought for a while, a very long while in fact, and he said, "Well, I guess I'll just have to put you all in." I didn't even calculate the odds at that point, as I was getting 3-to-1 on a call that figured to be the best hand. Call (total pot: 12000). And then he flipped this one over:

A-H, 8-D

Oops.