Wednesday, February 27, 2008

How not to play 8-3 clubs

As many no limit poker players know, position plays a big part in the decision making process. Tuesday I was playing in a tournament I play in regularly at the Ameristar Casino in Kansas City. I have a fairly good record there, and it happens to be my favorite tournament in the metro area. Playing position is good, and often button raises are profitable, although I believe they are less profitable than what they used to be. This particular tournament starts with 2500 in chips, about 40 players, and the 20-minute blind levels progress through 25-25, 25-50, and the level at which we were currently: 50-100. I had about 6500 in chips at this point, and I was currently chip leader at our table amongst a bunch of average stacks and a couple of big ones. I was just moved to a new table, and I only recognized two of the players. One of the players (Player X) I had experience with, and I knew that he had a tendency to over-value his hands. He had a comparable chip stack, about 6000, and so I felt I should get involved with him to see if I could hit a monster. I had just come from a table that was very easy to read, and I also hit a few hands that got me some chips. With one limper in middle position (pot 250), I raised it to 300 (pot 550) on the button with:

8-C, 3-C

The big blind happened to be player X. I thought I'd at least take out the small blind and have position on the other two. The small blind folded, Player X called (pot 750) and the limper folded. We saw a flop (suits may be wrong here, but weren't relevant for the most part):

A-H, 4-D, 2-S

Not exactly a dream flop for my hand. Player X bet out 600 (pot 1350). I figured my opponent had a reasonable Ace in his hand, but that it probably wasn't that strong since he didn't raise pre-flop. I thought I could fade another card and potentially make a move on the turn if I called, and so I did (pot 1950). If I hit a 5, bingo! If not, and my opponent bet anyway, I could probably just fold. Turn:

8-S

This improved my hand, but it really wasn't the card I wanted to see. I looked at my opponent as he measured out some chips, and he made it 1200 to go (pot 3150). Well, shucks. My hand improved, but by how much? I still thought he was protecting top pair, but I also felt like he was a little scared that I would take away the pot if he didn't bet. So, I thought any of these cards would *probably* give me a winner:

5-H, 5-D, 5-C, 5-S, 3-D, 3-H, 3-S, 8-D, 8-H

for a total of nine real outs. I also felt that any of the spades could be used as so-called phantom outs for a bluffing opportunity. For some reason, I justified a call here, even though it was for a whole lot of my remaining stack (pot 4350). This was a very, very, risky play, and in retrospect, I should have just given up and found a better spot. After my call, he says, "I can't believe you just called that." Neither could I. The river:

8-H

Wow. I just got runner-runner three of a kind. My heart skipped a beat. He thought for quite a while, and then he checked. I figured he had given up after the two eights came. Another jackass at the table who wasn't involved in the hand said, "Runner-runner to beat your ace?" I could have checked here, and just shown down my hand and hoped it held up, but there wasn't any straight or flush fears on the board, so I decided it would be profitable to value bet here. By betting, my opponent might fold, and I wouldn't have to show the crappy cards that I had been playing all along to attempt to suck out and/or bluff this guy. I bet 1200 (pot 5550). He thought for a while, a very long while in fact, and he said, "Well, I guess I'll just have to put you all in." I didn't even calculate the odds at that point, as I was getting 3-to-1 on a call that figured to be the best hand. Call (total pot: 12000). And then he flipped this one over:

A-H, 8-D

Oops.

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