Aggression, Table Image, and the Stock Market

Here's a quick quiz. What is the best way to play the stock market? Is it best to buy on the rise or the fall? I've got an M.B.A. in finance, but I can tell you that a lot of smarts in the market relates to being a contrarian, and doing the opposite of what the masses are doing. Don't buy when everyone is buying, and buy when everyone else is selling.

How about another quiz. What is the best way to play no-limit poker? Is it best to sit and wait for a good hand, push relentlessly with bluffs and semi-bluffs, or somewhere in between? The correct answer is that you should probably play the opposite tendency of your opponent(s) in the particular situation.

As a developing poker player, I've seen all kinds of games. I've seen crazy loose games, where 20x big-blind pre-flop raises are flat-called by 10-3 offsuit with only 100x stacks. I've been to bars and played free poker, where no one really has any idea what they are doing, and they have nothing at stake, and so they are inclined to call way more than they should. I've also played very tough games, where the average competition is well above average, like at the Venetian Las Vegas noon tournament.

I think this is a question that many players who are developing their A-game are constantly asking themselves. What should I do here? I know that if I don't play aggressively, especially in a tournament, I'm bound to come up short of the money, as good hands just don't happen often enough. I also know that too much aggression yields re-raises by other players to stop your aggression, and that people will call you down with King-high.

Here's my best piece of advice. Play the opposite of what your opponents are playing in lesser skilled games. When your opponents are tight, raise with a wider range of hands. When your opponents are loose, tighten up. If your opponents are not very observant, and they don't adjust well, this will often be enough to lead to good success.

Here's my next piece of advice. Against competent players, do the same thing, but understand that occasional randomization of play will be very important as well. In that case, you want to occasionally play differently than pure positive mathematical expectation plays in order to prevent your opponents from figuring you out. At better tables, I tend to have a very tight table image, but I don't play as tightly as my opponents perceive.

Try this the next time you are playing: pretend to look at your hole cards. Lift up the corners and riffle them a bit, but don't look. And then do your best to play your opponents' tendencies. Report your results in the comments below.